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Optimizing F-Measures by Cost-Sensitive Classification

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a theoretical analysis of F -measures for binary, multiclass and mul-tilabel classification. These performance measures are non-linear, but in many scenarios they are pseudo-linear functions of the per-class false negative/false positive rate. Based on this observation, we present a general reduction of F - measure maximization to cost-sensitive classification with unknown costs. We then propose an algorithm with provable guarantees to obtain an approximately optimal classifier for the F -measure by solving a series of cost-sensitive classification problems. The strength of our analysis is to be valid on any dataset and any class of classifiers, extending the existing theoretical results on F -measures, which are asymptotic in nature. We present numerical experiments to illustrate the relative importance of cost asymmetry and thresholding when learning linear classifiers on various F -measure optimization tasks.



Bridging Language Models and Financial Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have unlocked transformative possibilities in natural language processing, particularly within the financial sector. Financial data is often embedded in intricate relationships across textual content, numerical tables, and visual charts, posing challenges that traditional methods struggle to address effectively. However, the emergence of LLMs offers new pathways for processing and analyzing this multifaceted data with increased efficiency and insight. Despite the fast pace of innovation in LLM research, there remains a significant gap in their practical adoption within the finance industry, where cautious integration and long-term validation are prioritized. This disparity has led to a slower implementation of emerging LLM techniques, despite their immense potential in financial applications. As a result, many of the latest advancements in LLM technology remain underexplored or not fully utilized in this domain. This survey seeks to bridge this gap by providing a comprehensive overview of recent developments in LLM research and examining their applicability to the financial sector. Building on previous survey literature, we highlight several novel LLM methodologies, exploring their distinctive capabilities and their potential relevance to financial data analysis. By synthesizing insights from a broad range of studies, this paper aims to serve as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners, offering direction on promising research avenues and outlining future opportunities for advancing LLM applications in finance.


WorldModelBench: Judging Video Generation Models As World Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Video generation models have rapidly progressed, positioning themselves as video world models capable of supporting decision-making applications like robotics and autonomous driving. However, current benchmarks fail to rigorously evaluate these claims, focusing only on general video quality, ignoring important factors to world models such as physics adherence. To bridge this gap, we propose WorldModelBench, a benchmark designed to evaluate the world modeling capabilities of video generation models in application-driven domains. WorldModelBench offers two key advantages: (1) Against to nuanced world modeling violations: By incorporating instruction-following and physics-adherence dimensions, WorldModelBench detects subtle violations, such as irregular changes in object size that breach the mass conservation law - issues overlooked by prior benchmarks. (2) Aligned with large-scale human preferences: We crowd-source 67K human labels to accurately measure 14 frontier models. Using our high-quality human labels, we further fine-tune an accurate judger to automate the evaluation procedure, achieving 8.6% higher average accuracy in predicting world modeling violations than GPT-4o with 2B parameters. In addition, we demonstrate that training to align human annotations by maximizing the rewards from the judger noticeably improve the world modeling capability. The website is available at https://worldmodelbench-team.github.io.


Optimizing F-Measures by Cost-Sensitive Classification

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a theoretical analysis of F -measures for binary, multiclass and multilabel classification. These performance measures are non-linear, but in many scenarios they are pseudo-linear functions of the per-class false negative/false positive rate. Based on this observation, we present a general reduction of F - measure maximization to cost-sensitive classification with unknown costs. We then propose an algorithm with provable guarantees to obtain an approximately optimal classifier for the F -measure by solving a series of cost-sensitive classification problems. The strength of our analysis is to be valid on any dataset and any class of classifiers, extending the existing theoretical results on F -measures, which are asymptotic in nature. We present numerical experiments to illustrate the relative importance of cost asymmetry and thresholding when learning linear classifiers on various F -measure optimization tasks.


Accelerated Bayesian parameter estimation and model selection for gravitational waves with normalizing flows

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present an accelerated pipeline, based on high-performance computing techniques and normalizing flows, for joint Bayesian parameter estimation and model selection and demonstrate its efficiency in gravitational wave astrophysics. We integrate the Jim inference toolkit, a normalizing flow-enhanced Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, with the learned harmonic mean estimator. Our Bayesian evidence estimates run on $1$ GPU are consistent with traditional nested sampling techniques run on $16$ CPU cores, while reducing the computation time by factors of $5\times$ and $15\times$ for $4$-dimensional and $11$-dimensional gravitational wave inference problems, respectively. Our code is available in well-tested and thoroughly documented open-source packages, ensuring accessibility and reproducibility for the wider research community.


Is $F_1$ Score Suboptimal for Cybersecurity Models? Introducing $C_{score}$, a Cost-Aware Alternative for Model Assessment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The cost of errors related to machine learning classifiers, namely, false positives and false negatives, are not equal and are application dependent. For example, in cybersecurity applications, the cost of not detecting an attack is very different from marking a benign activity as an attack. Various design choices during machine learning model building, such as hyperparameter tuning and model selection, allow a data scientist to trade-off between these two errors. However, most of the commonly used metrics to evaluate model quality, such as $F_1$ score, which is defined in terms of model precision and recall, treat both these errors equally, making it difficult for users to optimize for the actual cost of these errors. In this paper, we propose a new cost-aware metric, $C_{score}$ based on precision and recall that can replace $F_1$ score for model evaluation and selection. It includes a cost ratio that takes into account the differing costs of handling false positives and false negatives. We derive and characterize the new cost metric, and compare it to $F_1$ score. Further, we use this metric for model thresholding for five cybersecurity related datasets for multiple cost ratios. The results show an average cost savings of 49%.


If Ray Kurzweil Is Right (Again), You'll Meet His Immortal Soul in the Cloud

WIRED

The 76-year-old scientist and engineer has spent much of his time on earth arguing that humans can not only take advantage of yet-to-be-invented medical advances to live longer, but also ultimately merge with machines, become hyperintelligent, and stick around indefinitely. Just minutes before we met, we both learned that Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel Prize–winning psychologist and one of Kurzweil's intellectual jousting partners, had suffered that fate. A few days before that, the science fiction author Vernor Vinge had also passed. Vinge's novels first described the singularity, that moment when superintelligent AI surpasses what humans can do and mere mortals need high-tech augmentation themselves to remain relevant. Kurzweil embraced the name for his own grand vision, and in 2005 wrote a best-selling book called The Singularity Is Near.


Pretrained Mobility Transformer: A Foundation Model for Human Mobility

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ubiquitous mobile devices are generating vast amounts of location-based service data that reveal how individuals navigate and utilize urban spaces in detail. In this study, we utilize these extensive, unlabeled sequences of user trajectories to develop a foundation model for understanding urban space and human mobility. We introduce the \textbf{P}retrained \textbf{M}obility \textbf{T}ransformer (PMT), which leverages the transformer architecture to process user trajectories in an autoregressive manner, converting geographical areas into tokens and embedding spatial and temporal information within these representations. Experiments conducted in three U.S. metropolitan areas over a two-month period demonstrate PMT's ability to capture underlying geographic and socio-demographic characteristics of regions. The proposed PMT excels across various downstream tasks, including next-location prediction, trajectory imputation, and trajectory generation. These results support PMT's capability and effectiveness in decoding complex patterns of human mobility, offering new insights into urban spatial functionality and individual mobility preferences.


Automated Inference of Graph Transformation Rules

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The explosion of data available in life sciences is fueling an increasing demand for expressive models and computational methods. Graph transformation is a model for dynamic systems with a large variety of applications. We introduce a novel method of the graph transformation model construction, combining generative and dynamical viewpoints to give a fully automated data-driven model inference method. The method takes the input dynamical properties, given as a "snapshot" of the dynamics encoded by explicit transitions, and constructs a compatible model. The obtained model is guaranteed to be minimal, thus framing the approach as model compression (from a set of transitions into a set of rules). The compression is permissive to a lossy case, where the constructed model is allowed to exhibit behavior outside of the input transitions, thus suggesting a completion of the input dynamics. The task of graph transformation model inference is naturally highly challenging due to the combinatorics involved. We tackle the exponential explosion by proposing a heuristically minimal translation of the task into a well-established problem, set cover, for which highly optimized solutions exist. We further showcase how our results relate to Kolmogorov complexity expressed in terms of graph transformation.